Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b9e…3f72 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$128 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$122
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -27.9%
≤30d 1 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -27.9%
≤90d 1 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -27.9%
all 1 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 0% -27.9%
10% -34.8% 0% -34.8%
15% -41.1% 0% -41.1%
20% -46.9% 0% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$11 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $90 $11 −$79 (-88%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $53 −$11 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 13m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 19m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $43 19m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $69 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $43 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $75 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $107 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.33 · official $319.93 · 11 history records