Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2b9f…047e sports 559 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$257 (-0%) realized −$253 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%244W / 302L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$267
14 days+$395
30 days+$1,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$2,162
sports 31% +$1,826
tech 5% −$1,523
politics 5% +$1,579
world 4% −$1,375
crypto 1% −$76
economics 0% −$17
weather 0% −$10
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -33.7% -40.0% 26% 23% -21.8%
≤30d 89 -21.9% -29.3% 35% 31% -0.4%
≤90d 228 -17.6% -25.4% 37% 33% -16.1%
all 546 -13.5% -21.7% 45% 42% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -13.5%
10% -29.2% 36% -21.8%
15% -36.1% 28% -29.4%
20% -42.3% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$45 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$2,167
Realized−$253
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses244 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions9
Markets (closed)546 / 559
History coverage195d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $500 $539 +$39 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $600 $492 −$108 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $200 $267 +$67 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $21 $5 −$16 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $180 −$23 -13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 18 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $104 −$16 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $206 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $275 −$12 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $560 −$10 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -27%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$21 -42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $104 −$94 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $21 +$10 +49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $505 −$5 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $31 +$15 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $269 +$637 +237%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $102 +$55 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $686 −$10 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$17 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $26 +$9 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $103 −$74 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $51 +$39 +77%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$21 -40%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $157 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND SELL 1¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $21 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $88 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $211 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $104 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 21¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 40h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $103 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $203 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $255 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $64 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $98 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $39 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $42 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $45 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,166.58 · official $2,166.62 (match) · 1539 history records