Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2ba0…ff3a sports 661 markets active 1h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,664 (-3%) realized −$1,592 · open −$72
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%432W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$48
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,134
other 6% −$596
crypto 3% −$42
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +12.6% +1.9% 70% 47% -6.6%
≤30d 45 +10.2% -0.3% 69% 49% -7.0%
≤90d 45 +10.2% -0.3% 69% 49% -7.0%
all 660 -3.6% -12.8% 65% 56% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 56% -11.7%
10% -21.1% 40% -20.1%
15% -28.7% 25% -27.9%
20% -35.7% 15% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$63 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$1,592
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses432 / 228
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)660 / 661
History coverage364d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Juan Manuel La Serna 69¢ 19¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $102 +$3 +3%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $56 −$32 -58%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $101 +$5 +4%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $87 +$40 +46%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $76 +$11 +14%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $94 +$10 +11%
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini Jun 16 $86 +$8 +10%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $85 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $101 −$35 -35%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $56 +$66 +119%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $34 +$22 +65%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $102 +$5 +5%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $111 −$103 -93%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $101 −$70 -69%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $78 −$42 -54%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $101 +$15 +15%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $101 −$49 -49%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $101 +$68 +67%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $101 +$6 +6%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $99 +$61 +62%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $101 +$55 +55%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $61 +$13 +22%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $56 −$3 -5%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $78 +$32 +42%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $123 −$95 -78%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $56 +$2 +3%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $56 +$12 +21%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 10 $56 +$6 +11%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 09 $51 +$2 +3%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $51 +$28 +55%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $51 +$58 +114%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $107 −$30 -28%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $86 +$15 +17%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $67 +$19 +28%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $87 −$20 -23%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Feb 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $23 −$16 -68%
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Jakub Mensik Feb 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B Feb 19 $25 +$10 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 69¢ $101 1h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Daniel Rincon 52¢ $105 1h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 49¢ $102 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 21¢ $23 2h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 24¢ $0 2h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 48¢ $56 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 73¢ $101 24h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 55¢ $100 24h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 54¢ $101 25h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 59¢ $106 26h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Billy Harris 47¢ $1 26h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 55¢ $101 26h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Billy Harris 63¢ $126 26h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 42¢ $87 26h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 54¢ $87 26h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 46¢ $76 27h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 50¢ $102 40h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 69¢ $104 2d
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini SELL Luca Potenza 99¢ $0 2d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 61¢ $94 2d
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini SELL Luca Potenza 54¢ $93 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 56¢ $1 2d
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini BUY Luca Potenza 48¢ $86 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 53¢ $86 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 51¢ $85 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Arthur Rinderknech 37¢ $64 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $101 2d
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Fiona Ferro 77¢ $5 2d
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 63¢ $4 2d
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 45¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.55 · official $27.55 (match) · 1419 history records