Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2ba3…1aaf sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$958 (-41%) realized −$951 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$146
14 days−$179
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$769
other 3% −$59
world 3% −$76
crypto 2% −$51
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 21 -35.4% -41.5% 29% 29% -45.3%
≤90d 34 -38.4% -44.3% 26% 26% -42.7%
all 61 -53.9% -58.3% 20% 20% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.3% 20% -51.4%
10% -62.3% 20% -56.1%
15% -65.9% 20% -60.3%
20% -69.2% 20% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$32 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$951
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 49
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage164d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin David Goffin 57¢ 60¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Pierre-Hugues Herbert 57¢ 56¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Mark Lajal 73¢ 72¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate Tristan Schoolkate 65¢ 64¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Otto Virtanen 83¢ 81¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $26 $19 −$7 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 −$76 -99%
Set Handicap: Boulter (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5) Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $56 +$46 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $32 +$30 +93%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $31 +$73 +238%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $19 −$19 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $22 −$22 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $39 −$38 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $36 +$44 +122%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5) Jun 02 $62 −$61 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $68 −$67 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5) May 27 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 27 $54 −$51 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif May 26 $48 +$56 +117%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Rie May 22 $45 +$111 +246%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez May 22 $43 −$42 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dell May 22 $42 −$41 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $45 −$44 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Mayar Sherif vs Greet Minnen May 22 $52 +$48 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $51 +$49 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 14 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $27 −$26 -97%
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia Feb 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Men's Round of 16 - Czechia vs. Denmark Feb 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Men's Round of 16 - Germany vs. France Feb 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Men's Round of 16 - Switzerland vs. Italy Feb 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs Feb 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar Open: Valentin Royer vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Feb 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Rafael Jodar Jan 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Australian Open Men's: James Duckworth vs Jannik Sinner Jan 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Vit Kopriva vs Taylor Fritz Jan 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Tomas Etcheverry vs Arthur Fery Jan 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Dayana Yastremska vs Gabriela Ruse Jan 20 $20 +$24 +122%
Australian Open Men's: Vit Kopriva vs Jan-Lennard Struff Jan 20 $20 +$40 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 57¢ $38 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Mark Lajal 73¢ $38 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 57¢ $38 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez BUY Otto Virtanen 83¢ $38 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 65¢ $38 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $50 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $77 7d
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 7d
Set Handicap: Boulter (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5) BUY Cristian 54¢ $56 10d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 50¢ $52 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $56 12d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $32 14d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 29¢ $31 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 31¢ $19 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $22 19d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) BUY Jodar 37¢ $39 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $81 19d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $20 20d
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5) BUY Cirstea 60¢ $62 20d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) BUY Jodar 65¢ $68 20d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Washington Nationals 37¢ $61 25d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5) SELL Linette 100¢ $104 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 9¢ $54 25d
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5) BUY Linette 48¢ $51 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 45¢ $48 29d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Rie SELL Pierre-Hugues Herbert 99¢ $156 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.25 · official $208.26 (match) · 87 history records