Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2ba4…637a other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 23% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 6% +$2
tech 5% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 4% −$1
politics 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -2.5% -11.8% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 5 -2.5% -11.8% 20% 0% -10.6%
all 22 +5.2% -4.8% 59% 14% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 14% -8.0%
10% -13.9% 9% -16.8%
15% -22.2% 9% -24.8%
20% -29.8% 5% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage484d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Dec 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $14 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $2 $0 -6%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $3 +$1 +59%
Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Roma vs. FC Porto Feb 23 $6 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 3h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $14 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $32 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $32 24d
Will Oracle buy TikTok? BUY No 99¢ $14 359d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 99¢ $14 359d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 99¢ $14 359d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $14 360d
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 99¢ $2 380d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $13 394d
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 96¢ $14 436d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? SELL No 93¢ $14 436d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $14 437d
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 97¢ $12 437d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 438d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 438d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 438d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 438d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 438d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 438d
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 97¢ $12 438d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records