Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2ba6…5cfc sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$241 (+21%) realized +$248 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$84
14 days+$125
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$58
sports 40% +$204
crypto 2% −$2
world 2% −$11
weather 1% −$10
culture 0% $0
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 50% +13.1%
≤30d 35 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 49% +10.1%
≤90d 79 +4.7% -5.2% 51% 47% +14.6%
all 79 +4.7% -5.2% 51% 47% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 47% +14.6%
10% -14.3% 46% +3.6%
15% -22.6% 44% -6.4%
20% -30.2% 41% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$248
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions15
Markets (closed)79 / 95
History coverage62d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 62¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 62¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+80%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Morocco to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 31¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $90 +$14 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$23 +276%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $1 $0 -15%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $10 +$11 +109%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $15 +$17 +111%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Morocco to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 42¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 12h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $2 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O BUY 41¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $90 7d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7d
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 9¢ $1 11d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.89 · official $194.89 (match) · 153 history records