Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2B 0x2ba8…aafa politics 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 119L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
politics 36% −$11
sports 7% +$31
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 115 +1.1% -8.5% 7% 6% -9.6%
all 134 +1.0% -8.7% 11% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 10% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×8.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 119
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage116d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $307 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $180 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $355 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $343 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $457 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $158 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $199 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $323 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $188 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $364 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $658 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $27 27h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $27 32h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 20d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $150 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 373 history records