Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2bac…f238
crypto · 1261 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,099 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15,431 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,204
Realized−$15,431
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses619 / 1094
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1713 / 1261
History coverage56d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 12 History 1713 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,651
7 days−$14,777
14 days−$14,174
30 days−$14,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $545 $554 +$9 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 90¢ 87¢ $172 $166 −$6 (-3%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No 95¢ 90¢ $76 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 60¢ 86¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+42%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $47 $17 −$30 (-64%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 46¢ 20¢ $29 $12 −$17 (-57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 5PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 5PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 5PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7PM ET Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 48% +$13
crypto 44% −$535
culture 2% +$9
other 2% +$12
tech 1% −$135
world 1% +$91
sports 1% −$22
finance 0% −$70
economics 0% −$30
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $3 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $200 47m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 49m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $5 50m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $273 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 498 -96.2% -96.5% 3% 2% -87.1%
≤30d 519 -91.5% -92.3% 7% 3% -75.7%
≤90d 1713 -32.9% -39.3% 36% 35% -46.1%
all 1713 -32.9% -39.3% 36% 35% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.3% 35% -46.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.1% 35% -51.3%
15% -50.4% 34% -56.0%
20% -55.3% 34% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.03 · official $1,204.03 (match) · 3500 history records