Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2B 0x2bad…68d4 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$236 (+7%) realized +$240 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$241
14 days+$232
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$265
sports 4% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -51.5% -56.1% 40% 40% -2.9%
≤30d 11 -55.9% -60.1% 36% 36% -3.2%
≤90d 11 -55.9% -60.1% 36% 36% -3.2%
all 11 -55.9% -60.1% 36% 36% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.1% 36% -3.2%
10% -63.9% 9% -12.4%
15% -67.4% 9% -20.9%
20% -70.6% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$23 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$240
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,007 +$241 +12%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $101 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,007 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.07 · official $186.07 (match) · 19 history records