Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2baf…8784 other 80 markets active 2d ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$309 (-4%) realized −$493 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$884now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$380
14 days−$364
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$101
tech 21% +$191
world 10% −$85
politics 7% +$14
sports 6% −$159
culture 4% −$185
finance 1% −$100
crypto 1% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.3% -41.4% 42% 42% -49.1%
≤30d 16 -26.5% -33.5% 50% 44% -28.3%
≤90d 43 -34.0% -40.3% 40% 37% -40.4%
all 73 -14.2% -22.4% 49% 47% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 47% -15.7%
10% -29.8% 38% -23.8%
15% -36.6% 27% -31.1%
20% -42.8% 21% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$87 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$884
Realized−$493
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)73 / 80
History coverage393d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 65¢ 96¢ $200 $294 +$94 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $197 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 32¢ 61¢ $97 $186 +$88 (+91%)
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 57¢ 61¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+7%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $34 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $81 +$19 +24%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 15 $7 +$6 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $129 −$127 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$7 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $126 −$123 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $202 +$54 +27%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $211 +$386 +183%
Will Toulon win? May 02 $39 −$39 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 02 $172 +$28 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 25 $295 −$291 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $158 +$89 +57%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 10 $247 −$247 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $92 +$105 +114%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Apr 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28? Apr 03 $300 −$300 -100%
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Apr 03 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025? Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles To Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $160 −$160 -100%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 24 $168 +$64 +38%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $159 +$864 +542%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 22 $100 +$27 +27%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08? Feb 10 $100 +$28 +28%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Feb 03 $100 +$92 +92%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $100 +$33 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $111 2d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $99 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 5d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 52¢ $7 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 6d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 80¢ $81 6d
Celonis IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 10d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $126 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 11d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 57¢ $63 15d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $202 15d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 43d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 43d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 43d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 78¢ $202 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 43d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 43d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 65¢ $203 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 44d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $44 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $883.64 · official $884.26 (match) · 205 history records