Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2baf…70ad other 200 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (324 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$78 (+7%) realized +$58 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day323.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$5
world 12% $0
tech 9% −$2
politics 5% +$2
crypto 5% +$5
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -98.4% -98.5% 0% 0% -96.8%
≤30d 8 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -98.9%
≤90d 8 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -98.9%
all 8 -99.2% -99.3% 0% 0% -98.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover323.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -99.3% 0% -98.9%
10% ← realistic here -99.3% 0% -99.0%
15% -99.4% 0% -99.1%
20% -99.5% 0% -99.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -113% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -113% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions221
Markets (closed)8 / 200
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day323.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 221 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027? Yes 26¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+293%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Chainlink dip to $4 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+217%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 29¢ 45¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+56%)
Will Aiemann Zahabi be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+2215%)
Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat? No 38¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 15¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+81%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kinetiq reach $0.7 before 2027? Yes 42¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+556%)
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? Yes 31¢ 39¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Chainlink dip to $6 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes 28¢ 31¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Yes $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -93%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 17 $0 −$1 -105%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -7%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -148%
Will Sherry Cardoso win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $0 $0 -95%
Will Anyone's Legend qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Karmine Corp qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 10m
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 17m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 22m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 34m
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No $1 58m
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No $2 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 1h
Will Andy Manske win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary el BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Andy Manske win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary el BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Andy Manske win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary el BUY Yes $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Rebecca Kleefisch win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican prim BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Rebecca Kleefisch win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican prim BUY Yes $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Andy Manske win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary el BUY Yes $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.53 · official $166.99 · 3500 history records