Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2bb7…40bd crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-23%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$88
world 23% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -27.7% -34.6% 67% 33% -32.8%
≤30d 3 -27.7% -34.6% 67% 33% -32.8%
≤90d 5 -56.6% -60.7% 40% 20% -48.0%
all 5 -56.6% -60.7% 40% 20% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 20% -48.0%
10% -64.5% 0% -53.0%
15% -67.9% 0% -57.5%
20% -71.1% 0% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$69 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage72d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $135 +$3 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 71d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records