Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bb7…88cb crypto 152 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+3%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%85W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$9
other 9% +$1
sports 2% +$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 50% -10.7%
≤30d 149 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 50% -10.7%
≤90d 149 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 50% -10.7%
all 149 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 50% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 50% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 42% -19.2%
15% -25.7% 30% -27.0%
20% -33.0% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses85 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)149 / 152
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +96%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 75¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.82 · official $3.82 (match) · 368 history records