Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

2B 0x2bbb…ec33 crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$147 (+5%) realized +$147 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$32

7 days−$25

14 days+$36

30 days+$36

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-19.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-17.9%	-25.8%	55%	55%	-11.1%
≤30d	19	-11.0%	-19.5%	58%	47%	-8.4%
≤90d	19	-11.0%	-19.5%	58%	47%	-8.4%
all	19	-11.0%	-19.5%	58%	47%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.5%	47%	-8.4%
10%	-27.2%	26%	-17.2%
15%	-34.2%	5%	-25.2%
20%	-40.7%	0%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$44 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$147

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage10d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 22	$108	−$108	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 22	$212	+$50	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 22	$314	+$53	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 22	$106	−$68	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 22	$211	+$37	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 22	$27	−$23	-84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 22	$116	+$27	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 16	$105	−$19	-18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 16	$106	+$14	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 16	$27	−$14	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 16	$105	+$25	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 14	$212	+$29	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 14	$214	+$11	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 14	$317	+$91	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 14	$263	−$12	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 12	$106	−$103	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 12	$103	−$4	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 12	$104	+$5	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 12	$106	+$44	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$120	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$141	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$107	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$367	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$314	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	SELL Down	22¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	SELL Down	86¢	$94	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	SELL Down	73¢	$154	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$107	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$142	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$105	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$86	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$105	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	SELL Down	71¢	$120	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$106	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$14	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$27	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$130	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$105	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$108	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$241	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$212	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$0	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	SELL Up	54¢	$224	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records