Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bbf…5b78 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$37
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$51
other 16% −$48
sports 15% −$21
world 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 36% -29.7%
≤30d 36 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 36 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 39% -12.7%
all 36 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 39% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 39% -12.7%
10% -26.7% 36% -21.1%
15% -33.7% 28% -28.7%
20% -40.2% 25% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage9d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 42¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +142%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$2 +89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +206%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +121%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $117 +$37 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 47¢ $9 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 26¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $0 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $4 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.29 · official $9.07 (match) · 82 history records