Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2bc3…7dd5 crypto 63 markets active 3d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$334 (-3%) realized −$334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate76%45W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$53
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$62
world 21% −$454
sports 1% +$55
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +35.8% +22.9% 50% 50% +24.1%
≤30d 15 +26.7% +14.7% 47% 47% +15.9%
≤90d 35 +12.1% +1.4% 77% 20% -7.9%
all 59 +4.0% -5.9% 76% 12% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 12% -12.3%
10% -14.9% 12% -20.7%
15% -23.2% 12% -28.3%
20% -30.7% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$39 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses45 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage107d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 17? Apr 16 $316 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? Apr 14 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 13 $312 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $309 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12? Apr 10 $307 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Apr 09 $305 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9? Apr 08 $300 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? Apr 05 $296 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 04 $293 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $288 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 01 $284 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Mar 31 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $278 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $275 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $273 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 26? Mar 25 $267 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $263 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Mar 21 $258 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $257 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 18 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 17 $253 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 17? Mar 16 $251 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18? Mar 16 $249 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $495 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 16? Mar 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 12? Mar 11 $245 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 10 $242 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $242 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 10? Mar 09 $140 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $10 −$7 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 34¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win o BUY 20¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 18¢ $10 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $10 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $10 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $318 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $316 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $316 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $314 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $314 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $203 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records