Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc3…7517 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-8%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$12
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$10
sports 8% −$24
crypto 5% −$14
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -13.6% -21.8% 17% 17% -13.8%
≤30d 52 -21.9% -29.3% 15% 15% -20.5%
≤90d 52 -21.9% -29.3% 15% 15% -20.5%
all 52 -21.9% -29.3% 15% 15% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 15% -20.5%
10% -36.1% 13% -28.1%
15% -42.3% 13% -35.1%
20% -47.9% 12% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $23 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $8 +$45 +550%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $4 +$12 +280%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $45 −$44 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 +$18 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$66 +1288%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 +$10 +340%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$7 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $23 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 28h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 28h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 41h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 41h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $45 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.45 · official $26.45 (match) · 63 history records