Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc4…34e4 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$160 (-18%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$177
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$187
sports 18% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.9% -1.4% 53% 53% -29.3%
≤30d 18 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 50% -30.1%
≤90d 18 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 50% -30.1%
all 18 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 50% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 50% -30.1%
10% -15.8% 44% -36.8%
15% -24.0% 33% -42.9%
20% -31.4% 33% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$34 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$14 -28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$11 +21%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$8 -15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$13 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +57%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$9 -44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$16 -32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 +$38 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $353 −$226 -64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $11 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $43 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $11 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $34 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $74 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $126 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $353 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 38 history records