Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2B 0x2bc5…8a35 other 69 markets active 17h ago coverage 157d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$137 (+17%) realized +$138 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%44W / 24L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$127
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +157.5% +133.0% 100% 100% +118.0%
≤30d 12 +23.3% +11.5% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤90d 18 +34.0% +21.2% 44% 44% +5.1%
all 68 +49.9% +35.6% 65% 59% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.6% 59% +5.7%
10% +22.7% 46% -4.4%
15% +10.8% 38% -13.7%
20% -0.1% 29% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses44 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage157d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +401%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $5 +$30 +591%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 01 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Mar 31 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $30 +$59 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 07 $19 +$23 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $29 −$16 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $4 +$25 +593%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 21 $17 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 19 $2 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 19 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 11 $3 +$2 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 11 $5 +$7 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $3 +$3 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 10 $6 +$7 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $1 +$7 +700%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 01 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $5 +$18 +339%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 31 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 27 $15 −$13 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 19 $84 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 17 $22 +$6 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 17 $23 +$6 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 17 $31 +$14 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 16 $5 +$4 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 16 $27 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 17h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 17h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 28h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 28h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 14d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 17d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 23d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 23d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 23d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 23d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 25d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 25d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 612 history records