Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bc5…adb1 crypto 469 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (194 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$456 (+5%) realized +$511 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%251W / 214L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day193.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (194 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 465 +5.6% -4.4% 54% 53% -3.0%
≤30d 465 +5.6% -4.4% 54% 53% -3.0%
≤90d 465 +5.6% -4.4% 54% 53% -3.0%
all 465 +5.6% -4.4% 54% 53% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 53% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 53% -12.3%
15% -21.9% 53% -20.8%
20% -29.6% 53% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$511
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses251 / 214
Open positions4
Markets (closed)465 / 469
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day193.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 52¢ 98¢ $31 $59 +$28 (+88%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 60¢ 57¢ $36 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 52¢ 42¢ $31 $25 −$6 (-20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Up 55¢ 26¢ $33 $15 −$17 (-53%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 52¢ 2¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 194 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $68 −$8 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$26 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$23 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$33 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$20 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$22 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$17 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$18 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $33 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $34 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $19 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.03 · official $151.83 · 877 history records