Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bc8…911d other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$90
economics 18% +$9
sports 8% −$52
politics 5% −$24
world 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +30.8% +18.3% 100% 67% +9.1%
≤30d 6 +30.8% +18.3% 100% 67% +9.1%
≤90d 6 +30.8% +18.3% 100% 67% +9.1%
all 16 -15.7% -23.8% 69% 38% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 38% -6.2%
10% -31.1% 25% -15.2%
15% -37.7% 19% -23.4%
20% -43.8% 6% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage361d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $118 +$5 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $108 +$10 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $35 +$23 +64%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 05 $50 −$50 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? Nov 05 $30 +$2 +7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Oct 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Sep 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September? Sep 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 02 $100 +$8 +8%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 04 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $118 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $90 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $80 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 9d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $50 234d
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $32 234d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY G2 Esports 30¢ $2 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 24¢ $5 248d
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $12 248d
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $10 255d
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $30 261d
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 280d
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September? BUY No 45¢ $20 299d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $108 299d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 85¢ $100 332d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 333d
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 358d
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 361d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.17 · official $123.11 (match) · 29 history records