Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2bc8…ab58 crypto 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate83%368W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$55
14 days+$39
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +8.3% -2.0% 87% 66% -5.1%
≤30d 445 +4.2% -5.7% 83% 61% -9.4%
≤90d 445 +4.2% -5.7% 83% 61% -9.4%
all 445 +4.2% -5.7% 83% 61% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 61% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 25% -18.0%
15% -22.9% 6% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses368 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)445 / 445
History coverage19d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 445 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$5 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$5 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$6 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$5 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$6 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 913 history records