trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 36% | 36% | -6.4% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 36% | 36% | -6.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 36% | 36% | -6.4% |
| all | 14 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 29% | 29% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.2% | 29% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -19.7% | 29% | -20.4% |
| 15% | -27.4% | 21% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 14% | -35.1% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $61 | −$61 | -100% |
| Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $10 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $134 | −$7 | -5% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $99 | −$4 | -4% |
| Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $10 | +$40 | +386% |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$4 | -70% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $79 | +$45 | +58% |
| Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $10 | −$3 | -34% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $32 | +$13 | +42% |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 09 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 31 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 | Dec 22 | $14 | −$1 | -8% |