Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2bc8…dfe0 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
politics 24% −$5
tech 4% −$190
economics 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
sports 3% +$15
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +3.9% -6.0% 14% 11% -10.4%
all 107 +3.9% -6.0% 14% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 11% -10.4%
10% -15.0% 10% -19.0%
15% -23.2% 10% -26.8%
20% -30.8% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage85d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 46¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $151 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $355 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $359 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $357 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $357 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $375 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $378 −$190 -50%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $356 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $179 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $370 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $352 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $366 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $376 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $566 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $377 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $366 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $357 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 4h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $6 12h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $1 12h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 25h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 29h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 32h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $71 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.75 · official $82.75 (match) · 302 history records