Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2bca…d262 crypto 542 markets active 3h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$126 (-16%) realized −$124 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%175W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$4
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$149
other 2% −$8
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -34.4% -40.6% 25% 25% -35.4%
≤30d 65 -18.1% -25.9% 28% 28% -22.3%
≤90d 409 -54.8% -59.1% 16% 15% -46.7%
all 532 -22.2% -29.6% 33% 30% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 30% -26.3%
10% -36.3% 27% -33.3%
15% -42.5% 23% -39.8%
20% -48.1% 19% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses175 / 357
Open positions10
Markets (closed)532 / 542
History coverage116d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? No 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +113%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +195%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +168%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$4 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$4 +182%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +302%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$4 +192%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +166%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$11 +1058%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 8¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 5¢ $1 27h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 4¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $1 3d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 7¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.90 · official $7.90 (match) · 1354 history records