Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bcf…0710 weather 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-3%) realized −$211 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%50W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$171
14 days−$155
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$38
politics 23% −$73
other 18% +$10
weather 7% −$102
sports 7% −$67
crypto 1% −$71
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-61.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -68.6% -71.6% 15% 7% -18.8%
≤30d 200 -62.6% -66.1% 21% 7% -15.4%
≤90d 214 -56.9% -61.0% 23% 8% -16.3%
all 214 -56.9% -61.0% 23% 8% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.0% 8% -16.3%
10% -64.7% 5% -24.3%
15% -68.1% 4% -31.6%
20% -71.3% 3% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2,164
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses50 / 164
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions43
Markets (closed)214 / 257
History coverage53d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $500 $507 +$7 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $367 $354 −$13 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 94¢ $266 $283 +$18 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $192 $191 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $133 $116 −$17 (-12%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $56 $62 +$6 (+10%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $23 $30 +$6 (+28%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 69¢ 62¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 85¢ 100¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 99¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $7 +$6 (+1500%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+2800%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 1 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on June Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 −$10 -46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 19? Jun 20 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $45 −$1 -2%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $7 −$3 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 19? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7 −$2 -29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$40 +269%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 −$6 -10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -92%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $45 −$7 -15%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 40m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 49m
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $62 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $35 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 0¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 20? SELL No 0¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,163.61 · official $2,164.40 (match) · 986 history records