Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bd5…a55a crypto 48 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-15%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$104
sports 3% +$13
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -21.8% -29.2% 44% 28% -31.9%
≤30d 48 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 29% -27.7%
≤90d 48 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 29% -27.7%
all 48 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 29% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 29% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 19% -34.6%
15% -39.5% 17% -40.9%
20% -45.5% 15% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records