Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2bd6…60c2 world 95 markets active 1d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13,706 (+7%) realized +$13,404 · open +$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate67%62W / 31L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$2,101per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$63
14 days+$247
30 days+$4,365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$8,284
finance 11% +$536
other 8% +$2,520
politics 5% +$513
sports 3% +$917
economics 3% +$196
tech 3% +$852
crypto 1% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 24 +19.9% +8.5% 67% 38% -3.7%
≤90d 55 +15.6% +4.6% 64% 31% -2.2%
all 93 +9.2% -1.2% 67% 24% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 24% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 14% -12.7%
15% -19.3% 8% -21.1%
20% -27.2% 4% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,919) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$188 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$1,279
Realized+$13,404
Unrealized+$302
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses62 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2,101
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 76¢ 100¢ $942 $1,243 +$301 (+32%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 27 $1,149 +$63 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $28 +$9 +33%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 15 $493 +$174 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $23,336 −$720 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $499 +$19 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12,195 +$394 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,848 +$523 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $5,815 +$668 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,530 +$63 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $230 −$30 -13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,235 +$427 +35%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $550 −$300 -54%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $6,531 +$200 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $2,790 +$267 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $314 +$1,004 +320%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $308 +$93 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $1,400 −$100 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $853 +$59 +7%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $522 +$151 +29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,394 +$1,523 +28%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,103 −$123 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $5 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $10 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4,491 +$8,229 +183%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $677 +$73 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $1,538 −$142 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $7,912 −$1,165 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $281 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $1,406 +$33 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $185 −$24 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $9,670 +$440 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $4,490 +$420 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $6,709 +$183 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $373 −$21 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $1,440 +$122 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 22 $850 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $1,800 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $445 +$35 +8%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 21 $1,260 +$167 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $3,033 +$280 +9%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $640 +$427 +67%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 29 $5 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,110 −$120 -11%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $3,017 +$383 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $1,540 −$270 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $3,155 +$92 +3%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $1,919 +$107 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $17,364 −$1,874 -11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 19 $1,001 −$29 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 66¢ $864 31h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 66¢ $17 31h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 66¢ $35 31h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 66¢ $72 31h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 66¢ $147 31h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Max Holloway 66¢ $78 31h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 62¢ $519 44h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 63¢ $630 44h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $37 13d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $28 13d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $166 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $174 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $182 14d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $333 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $2,502 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $384 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,000 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $3,433 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $347 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 14d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $45 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $790 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $11 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $3 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $550 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $17 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $6 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,278.78 · official $1,278.78 (match) · 2004 history records