Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2bd7…1ad6
crypto · 772 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,613 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,575 · open +$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$271
Realized+$4,575
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses433 / 336
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)769 / 772
History coverage4d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day628.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 769 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,328
7 days+$4,575
14 days+$4,575
30 days+$4,575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Down 83¢ 98¢ $223 $265 +$42 (+19%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Up 1¢ 2¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+108%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-92%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $258 $0 −$258 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$6 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $208 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $161 +$87 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $251 +$47 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $286 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $264 +$33 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $127 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $261 −$258 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $199 +$98 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $199 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $247 +$50 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $279 +$21 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $258 +$42 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $294 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $548 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $250 +$56 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $231 +$69 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $289 +$11 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $147 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $198 +$102 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $273 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $243 +$57 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $264 +$36 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $290 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $288 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $214 +$86 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1,164 +$36 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $253 +$41 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$4,614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $8 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $261 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $229 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $296 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $261 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $186 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 769 -15.3% -23.3% 56% 30% -6.8%
≤30d 769 -15.3% -23.3% 56% 30% -6.8%
≤90d 769 -15.3% -23.3% 56% 30% -6.8%
all 769 -15.3% -23.3% 56% 30% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover628.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 30% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 15% -15.7%
15% -37.4% 7% -23.8%
20% -43.5% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.18 · official $271.18 (match) · 3500 history records