Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bd9…fb6c world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$27
14 days+$26
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$19
other 23% −$7
politics 16% −$2
sports 15% −$3
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 7% -8.3%
≤30d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 84 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 4% -9.8%
all 100 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 71
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage331d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $125 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $132 −$6 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $132 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 −$3 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $147 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $123 +$12 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $231 +$9 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $128 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $133 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $314 +$14 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $512 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $253 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $224 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $119 −$7 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $166 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $134 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $74 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $141 −$8 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $282 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $305 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 26 $122 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $80 +$3 +3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $144 −$39 -27%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $144 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $159 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $157 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $325 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $8 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $143 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $127 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $312 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $325 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $125 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $126 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $132 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $110 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $131 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $13 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $118 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $132 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $98 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $49 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $147 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 54¢ $135 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $115 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $115 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $117 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $57 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $71 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.49 · official $125.49 (match) · 474 history records