Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bde…ecba other 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$865 (-4%) realized −$865 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%111W / 92L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$76
14 days−$998
30 days−$1,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$505
crypto 35% −$798
other 23% +$26
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 15% -10.4%
≤30d 110 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 17% -14.1%
≤90d 203 -10.1% -18.6% 55% 35% -14.3%
all 203 -10.1% -18.6% 55% 35% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 35% -14.3%
10% -26.4% 5% -22.5%
15% -33.5% 1% -30.0%
20% -40.0% 1% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$865
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses111 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 202
History coverage90d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 —%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $424 −$128 -30%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $115 +$36 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $160 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $104 −$14 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,010 +$29 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 +$25 +84%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $852 −$46 -5%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $61 +$12 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$5 -32%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $958 +$80 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $217 +$11 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $70 +$11 +16%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $20 −$2 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $6 −$3 -57%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $39 −$3 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $39 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $164 +$16 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $366 +$3 +1%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $83 +$19 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $9 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $87 −$4 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 10 $41 −$3 -7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $138 −$10 -7%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $40 −$24 -60%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $32 −$20 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $104 −$3 -3%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $121 +$4 +4%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $161 −$39 -24%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $63 −$1 -1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $321 −$22 -7%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $47 +$1 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $75 −$8 -10%
Ilkley: Ugo Blanchet vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 08 $100 +$16 +16%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $141 −$22 -15%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $100 +$16 +16%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $60 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 08 $152 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 96¢ $34 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 94¢ $20 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 85¢ $19 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 78¢ $26 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $115 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 88¢ $1,063 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 42¢ $12 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 60¢ $66 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 65¢ $19 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 68¢ $40 18h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $0 40h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $9 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 73¢ $160 41h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $60 42h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 94¢ $160 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 37¢ $90 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 39¢ $104 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.82 · official $217.82 (match) · 863 history records