Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2B 0x2bdf…c7e9 sports 7 markets active 5h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$108 (+126%) realized +$108 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip

Net edge+91%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+91.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+111.2%	+91.1%	50%	50%	+119.5%
≤30d	6	+111.2%	+91.1%	50%	50%	+119.5%
≤90d	6	+111.2%	+91.1%	50%	50%	+119.5%
all	6	+111.2%	+91.1%	50%	50%	+119.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+91.1%	50%	+119.5%
10%	+72.8%	50%	+98.5%
15%	+56.1%	50%	+79.3%
20%	+40.8%	50%	+61.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +143% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +111% · $-wt +143% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$11 · ×4.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$108

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	19¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$11	+$12	+105%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	+$49	+474%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$20	+$80	+388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$11	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$8	2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$8	4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$11	5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	50¢	$4	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	20¢	$20	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.30 · official $10.24 (match) · 12 history records