Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2be0…75b0 sports 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-2%) realized −$129 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate69%46W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$136
14 days−$136
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$175
other 14% −$147
crypto 5% −$175
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -8.4% -17.1% 70% 23% -11.2%
≤30d 67 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 22% -11.3%
≤90d 67 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 22% -11.3%
all 67 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 22% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 22% -11.3%
10% -26.2% 15% -19.8%
15% -33.3% 9% -27.5%
20% -39.9% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$33 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses46 / 21
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage23d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Otto Virtanen 91¢ 90¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $330 +$15 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $171 +$55 +32%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $527 −$238 -45%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $201 +$21 +10%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $200 +$3 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $270 +$1 +0%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $200 +$10 +5%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $201 +$37 +18%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $201 +$19 +10%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $351 −$14 -4%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $332 −$5 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $111 +$30 +27%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $231 +$11 +5%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $110 +$9 +8%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $215 +$15 +7%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $101 −$29 -29%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $200 +$7 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $252 +$7 +3%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $252 $0 +0%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $211 +$39 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 91¢ $201 3m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $105 5m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $13 29m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 95¢ $100 32m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 78¢ $10 38m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $107 50m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $107 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $206 3h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 97¢ $200 3h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $200 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 100¢ $200 4h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 93¢ $100 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 100¢ $110 5h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 91¢ $100 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $345 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 97¢ $230 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka SELL Martyna Kubka 100¢ $226 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 75¢ $171 6h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $68 6h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 93¢ $100 6h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 73¢ $50 6h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Facundo Acosta 100¢ $208 6h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 96¢ $200 6h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Florian Broska 18¢ $29 6h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $222 6h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 77¢ $126 6h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Facundo Acosta 24¢ $52 6h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 90¢ $201 6h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot SELL Cosme de Ravel 100¢ $203 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.80 · official $195.60 · 168 history records