Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2be4…01ad sports 41 markets active 184d ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (436 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67,891 (+43%) realized +$67,891 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$3,878per market
Trades / day435.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$754
sports 35% +$2,103
politics 20% +$66
crypto 0% −$103
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (436 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 41 +6.5% -3.6% 61% 15% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover435.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 15% -7.9%
10% -12.9% 10% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.3% 5% -24.8%
20% -29.0% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$2,313) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
39.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$20 · ×6.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.19 per $1 lost it wins $11.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67,891
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$3,878
Trades / day435.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Dec 26 $33 +$84 +254%
Chargers vs. Cowboys Dec 26 $324 −$4 -1%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $176 $0 +0%
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) Dec 26 $352 −$36 -10%
Will Angola win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $584 +$27 +5%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) Dec 26 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 26 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-25? Dec 25 $10 −$1 -5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 23 $949 +$336 +35%
ILT20: Abu Dhabi Knight Riders vs Sharjah Warriorz (Game 1) Dec 22 $3,374 +$77 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 22 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 22 $204 −$99 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 22 $4 −$2 -50%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 22 $441 $0 -0%
Steelers vs. Lions Dec 22 $26 +$3 +12%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 21 $6 $0 -0%
Raiders vs. Texans Dec 21 $112 +$4 +4%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Final Stage: Learner Tien vs Alexander Blockx Dec 21 $42 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) Dec 21 $2,363 −$124 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Dec 21 $156 +$9 +6%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) Dec 21 $540 +$15 +3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 21 $20 −$8 -39%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 21 $1,524 +$29 +2%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $1,605 +$8 +0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) Dec 20 $0 $0 +0%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Final Stage: Learner Tien vs Nishesh Basavareddy Dec 20 $9,870 +$585 +6%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Final Stage: Alexander Blockx vs Nicolai Budkov K Dec 20 $1,169 +$104 +9%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) Dec 20 $334 +$18 +5%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO3) Dec 20 $6 +$1 +24%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Dec 20 $2,313 +$339 +15%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $63,878 +$727 +1%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $13,833 +$156 +1%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $31,968 +$66 +0%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Learner Tien vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Dec 19 $3,786 +$35 +1%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) Dec 19 $201 +$14 +7%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 19 $6,900 $0 -0%
International T20 Series: India vs South Africa (Game 5) Dec 19 $5,316 +$197 +4%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group B: Alexander Blockx vs Dino Prizmic Dec 19 $11 +$1 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Dec 19 $5,376 +$77 +1%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Dec 19 $876 +$92 +10%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3) Dec 18 $303 +$93 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $174 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 24¢ $3 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) BUY Sharjah Warriorz 23¢ $3 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 21¢ $15 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 21¢ $6 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 21¢ $7 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 21¢ $2 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 63¢ $5 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) BUY Sharjah Warriorz 63¢ $94 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 47¢ $22 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 47¢ $5 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) BUY Sharjah Warriorz 45¢ $4 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 43¢ $6 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) BUY Sharjah Warriorz 41¢ $26 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 35¢ $2 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 22¢ $1 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 23¢ $4 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) BUY Sharjah Warriorz 22¢ $2 184d
ILT20: Sharjah Warriorz vs Desert Vipers (Game 1) SELL Sharjah Warriorz 23¢ $2 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records