Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bec…315a politics 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$18
politics 35% −$14
crypto 6% −$1
sports 3% +$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +0.0% -9.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +1.4% -8.3% 6% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage123d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $537 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $793 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $491 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $446 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $452 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $397 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 10h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 14h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 4d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.00 · official $70.00 (match) · 403 history records