Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2B 0x2bee…d0b8 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$45 (-15%) realized −$35 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$33
14 days+$51
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$68
sports 11% +$25
crypto 4% −$3
tech 4% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.3% +11.5% 79% 71% +13.6%
≤30d 17 +17.5% +6.3% 71% 65% +0.9%
≤90d 17 +17.5% +6.3% 71% 65% +0.9%
all 18 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 61% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 61% -25.8%
10% -9.2% 39% -32.9%
15% -18.0% 28% -39.4%
20% -26.0% 22% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage117d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-6%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 28¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9 +$8 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$18 +172%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 56¢ $3 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 8d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 16d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 81¢ $61 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.39 · official $47.40 (match) · 40 history records