Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2bee…a29f world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$7
other 19% +$1
politics 7% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.2% 56% 11% -7.4%
≤30d 12 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 8% -8.0%
≤90d 12 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 8% -8.0%
all 23 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 4% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -8.1%
10% -17.4% 0% -16.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.2 per $1 lost it wins $5.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage448d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $36 +$6 +17%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $57 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 28 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $20 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $21 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $37 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $37 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.25 · official $43.25 (match) · 65 history records