Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2bef…8d59 world 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+4%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$3
politics 17% +$18
other 14% +$1
sports 10% +$21
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -10.1%
all 23 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 9% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 9% -5.5%
10% -13.4% 9% -14.6%
15% -21.8% 9% -22.8%
20% -29.4% 4% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.79 per $1 lost it wins $6.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage472d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $125 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 30 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $53 +$1 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $37 +$17 +45%
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 02 $12 +$23 +185%
Will "Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl" win Best Animated Feature Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $39 4m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 4m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $2 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $43 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $48 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records