Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2bf3…4f00
sports · 209 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$261 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$313 · open +$52
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$487
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses104 / 90
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions15
Markets (closed)194 / 209
Avg bet$16
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 15 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days−$242
14 days−$313
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 73¢ 100¢ $122 $166 +$44 (+36%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 64¢ 96¢ $85 $128 +$43 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner FURIA 65¢ 100¢ $32 $49 +$17 (+54%)
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 1 Winner Pandawa Lima 21¢ 100¢ $9 $44 +$35 (+376%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner ex-RUBY 68¢ 100¢ $26 $39 +$13 (+48%)
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Oriol Roca Batalla 39¢ 43¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group D Virtus.pro 32¢ 32¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 22.5 Under 71¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 88¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) TheMongolz 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Brazil 92¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 68¢ 45¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BC Zenit 53¢ 24¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner G2 Ares 20¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group A Abyssal 17¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Nigeria 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 78¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Galorys 81¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs BESTIA 76¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
ITF Lakewood: Kaylan Bigun vs Amit Vales Amit Vales 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Cabral/Mektic vs Altmaier/Jebens Altmaier/Jebens 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
ITF Wichita: Reese Brantmeier vs Clervie Ngounoue Clervie Ngounoue 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Zero Tenacity 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Maria Jun 12 $5 +$7 +152%
ITF kiseljak: Vladyslav Orlov vs Alen Mujakic Jun 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$15 -71%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic Jun 12 $21 +$16 +78%
ITF kiseljak: Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila vs Kirill Kivattsev Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $41 +$9 +21%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $29 −$29 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $108 +$25 +23%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $65 +$11 +17%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 12 $50 +$27 +53%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 +$11 +97%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $73 −$58 -79%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 12 $66 −$65 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$10 +213%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 12 $25 +$8 +31%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Kosuke Ogura Jun 12 $16 −$15 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $97 +$38 +39%
Cigarran vs. Estevez: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
ITF Los Angeles: Benjamin O'connell vs Matic Kriznik Jun 11 $15 +$4 +25%
ITF Cuiaba: Giovana Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa vs Carolina Alves Jun 11 $57 +$14 +24%
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor Jun 11 $66 +$33 +50%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $20 +$19 +93%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $3 +$3 +79%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$4 +156%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $56 +$28 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 +$15 +50%
ITF Los Angeles: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Rachel Gailis Jun 11 $2 +$1 +65%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $66 −$65 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$3 +46%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $42 −$18 -43%
Ilkley (Doubles): Bollipalli/Hilderbrand vs Bass/Duncan Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $66 +$36 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $92 −$90 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $7 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$7 +124%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$23 +158%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $30 +$40 +131%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ex-MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$25 +119%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $43 +$30 +71%
ITF Los Angeles: Abigail Haile vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$9 +29%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$21 +97%
Gomez vs. Natour: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $63 +$6 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $28 +$17 +60%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$8 +30%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$261
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $13 2m
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BUY BC Zenit 53¢ $4 17m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY Abyssal 11¢ $5 31m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY Abyssal 32¢ $6 42m
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Maria BUY Maria 39¢ $5 50m
Cristian vs. Boulter: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 71¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 88¢ $7 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 83¢ $4 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 21¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 1 Winner BUY Pandawa Lima 21¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 20¢ $16 1h
ITF kiseljak: Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila vs Kirill Kivattsev BUY Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila 51¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 7¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 70¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 65¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 65¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 81¢ $60 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 78¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 78¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 69¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 63¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY against All authority 32¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY against All authority 34¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 48¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY against All authority 66¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 56% -17.9%
≤30d 194 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 50% -18.9%
≤90d 194 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 50% -18.9%
all 194 -11.1% -19.6% 54% 50% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 50% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 43% -26.7%
15% -34.3% 33% -33.8%
20% -40.7% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.65 · official $488.90 (match) · 512 history records