Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2bf6…981d
crypto · 740 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$63 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses384 / 355
Open positions1
Markets (closed)739 / 740
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 739 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$13
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Down 67¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$60
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +5.0% -5.0% 55% 49% -3.0%
≤30d 180 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 49% -7.2%
≤90d 322 +6.2% -3.9% 57% 55% -3.0%
all 739 +6.5% -3.6% 52% 48% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 48% -1.0%
10% -12.9% 43% -10.5%
15% -21.3% 36% -19.2%
20% -29.0% 30% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.79 (match) · 2023 history records