Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c02…e53f world 45 markets active 4h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
politics 19% −$1
other 19% +$1
sports 9% −$5
economics 9% +$1
tech 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.2% -18.8% 29% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -7.3% -16.2% 38% 8% -10.4%
all 44 -1.6% -11.0% 30% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 7% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage267d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 −$3 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $14 −$4 -26%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 24 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 +4%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $7 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $17 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $5 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $6 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $30 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.88 (match) · 176 history records