Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c03…9ace weather 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%89W / 5L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$6
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 83 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 94 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×72.95 per $1 lost it wins $72.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses89 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage122d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 22? Jun 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 03 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 29? May 30 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 27? May 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 26 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 23? May 24 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? May 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on May 20? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 16? May 17 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $77 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $40 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $116 36h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $117 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $117 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $116 9d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $115 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 11d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $115 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 12d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $107 13d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $9 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $114 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $114 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $45 16d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $71 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $6 17d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $114 18d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $114 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $114 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.35 · official $117.35 (match) · 191 history records