Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2c05…6be3 sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$109 (+35%) realized +$110 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$125
other 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +42.0% +28.4% 50% 41% +28.0%
≤30d 22 +42.0% +28.4% 50% 41% +28.0%
≤90d 22 +42.0% +28.4% 50% 41% +28.0%
all 22 +42.0% +28.4% 50% 41% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.4% 41% +28.0%
10% ← realistic here +16.1% 36% +15.8%
15% +4.9% 36% +4.6%
20% -5.4% 32% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.74 per $1 lost it wins $4.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$20 +649%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 −$1 -15%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 +$8 +784%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +83%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 +$37 +121%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 +$1 +6%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $70 +$14 +20%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $37 +$3 +8%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $21 +$19 +92%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $12 +$7 +61%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $12 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 13m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 13m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 49m
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY 1¢ $1 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan BUY 5¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $19 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $67 18h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 19h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 19h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Senegal 85¢ $84 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 70¢ $70 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 4¢ $0 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 56¢ $7 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.30 · official $16.30 · 47 history records