Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c09…ed31 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$111 (-2%) realized −$122 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days−$224
14 days−$234
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$506
other 44% −$729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +21.3% +9.7% 33% 33% -14.2%
≤30d 32 +18.1% +6.8% 34% 34% -14.2%
≤90d 32 +18.1% +6.8% 34% 34% -14.2%
all 32 +18.1% +6.8% 34% 34% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 34% -14.2%
10% -3.4% 31% -22.4%
15% -12.7% 31% -29.9%
20% -21.3% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$90 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage8d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $344 $350 +$6 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $179 $178 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Will Kai Havertz score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $22 $35 +$12 (+55%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $543 +$240 +44%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $500 +$432 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $165 +$144 +87%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 +$89 +1276%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $328 +$57 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $32 −$14 -44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $570 −$570 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$78 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $148 +$63 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $132 +$157 +120%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $189 +$126 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 −$7 -23%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $96 −$11 -11%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $76 −$5 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $190 +$213 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $137 −$50 -37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $136 +$54 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $183 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $252 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $247 21h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $296 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $132 40h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $214 44h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $286 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $142 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $31 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $31 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $134 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $115 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $327 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $149 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $72 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $560 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $629.98 · official $629.98 (match) · 88 history records