Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c09…b9b3 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-9%) realized −$106 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day102.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$150
other 34% −$96
world 2% +$6
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -19.4% -27.0% 57% 11% -25.1%
≤30d 37 -19.4% -27.0% 57% 11% -25.1%
≤90d 37 -19.4% -27.0% 57% 11% -25.1%
all 37 -19.4% -27.0% 57% 11% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 11% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 8% -32.2%
15% -40.4% 5% -38.8%
20% -46.2% 3% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day102.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 −$1 -9%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $34 +$3 +8%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $57 +$8 +14%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $189 −$50 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7 $0 +4%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $58 −$49 -85%
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 28 $58 −$55 -94%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $35 +$3 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $35 $0 +0%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $56 $0 -1%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $18 −$3 -16%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $40 +$2 +6%
England to score first vs. Panama? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $60 +$5 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $40 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $32 −$29 -91%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $19 +$10 +52%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 −$8 -89%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $17 −$12 -71%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 −$18 -95%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $58 −$57 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9 −$7 -78%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $19 +$2 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 +$6 +30%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 26 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 10m
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 10m
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 10m
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 10m
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 10m
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 10m
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 10m
Austria to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 10m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 10m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 6¢ $22 24m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 29m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 4¢ $8 29m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 29m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 31m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $20 31m
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 31m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 31m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 31m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $12 31m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 55m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $70 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 18¢ $8 1h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 70¢ $69 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.90 · official $73.90 (match) · 159 history records