Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c09…2ad4 crypto 884 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$324 (+1%) realized +$355 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate78%687W / 196L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$11
14 days−$138
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$426
finance 43% +$545
other 0% −$20
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -58.7% -62.6% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 358 -7.7% -16.5% 77% 14% -10.2%
≤90d 881 -2.7% -11.9% 78% 27% -9.3%
all 883 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 27% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 27% -9.3%
10% -20.3% 11% -18.0%
15% -28.0% 5% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses687 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)883 / 884
History coverage94d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 883 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Up 90¢ 79¢ $180 $158 −$22 (-12%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Down 68¢ 21¢ $44 $14 −$31 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 19 $1,582 +$17 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,237 +$39 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $119 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$5 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,853 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $221 −$221 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $756 +$61 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $203 +$13 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $236 +$25 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $205 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $40 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 90¢ $181 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 62¢ $6 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 73¢ $4 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 73¢ $15 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 66¢ $20 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 12h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 100¢ $1,047 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 98¢ $37 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 98¢ $107 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 98¢ $390 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 98¢ $98 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 99¢ $495 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 97¢ $97 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 96¢ $17 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 92¢ $18 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 90¢ $45 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 93¢ $28 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 95¢ $48 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 95¢ $48 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 94¢ $14 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 92¢ $23 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 92¢ $14 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 90¢ $81 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 90¢ $9 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 74¢ $203 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 69¢ $101 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 78¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.65 · official $161.53 · 2774 history records