Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2c0a…291c sports 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 727d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$393 (-2%) realized −$383 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%85W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$72
14 days+$201
30 days+$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1,693
other 29% +$795
politics 18% −$2,202
economics 4% −$270
world 2% −$265
crypto 1% −$82
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 40% -18.3%
≤30d 39 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 51% +7.4%
≤90d 49 +7.5% -2.8% 53% 53% +14.3%
all 173 -1.8% -11.1% 49% 49% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 49% -11.1%
10% -19.6% 47% -19.6%
15% -27.4% 46% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 38% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$96 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

727d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses85 / 88
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)173 / 179
History coverage727d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $252 +$43 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$32 +63%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $76 +$45 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$90 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 Jun 19 $51 +$60 +118%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$18 +36%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$86 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $162 +$151 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $35 +$21 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $10 +$28 +276%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $25 +$21 +83%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $253 +$201 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will 2+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $51 +$49 +97%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $25 +$19 +73%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 07 $200 +$24 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $406 +$393 +97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? May 02 $50 +$34 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 36h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $295 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $76 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 45¢ $51 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $76 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $50 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 55¢ $101 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.60 · official $134.60 (match) · 385 history records