Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2c0a…8d63 weather 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%74W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$134
14 days−$124
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$48
world 3% +$1
tech 1% +$3
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.7% -17.4% 78% 0% -18.6%
≤30d 34 -2.0% -11.4% 88% 3% -11.3%
≤90d 79 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 4% -10.0%
all 81 -1.3% -10.7% 91% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$23 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses74 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage109d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $172 −$143 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $173 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $171 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $169 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $166 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $165 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $164 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $161 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $158 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $155 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $156 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $155 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $154 +$1 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1 $0 -49%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $7 −$2 -38%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $149 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $145 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $140 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $134 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29? May 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 28? May 28 $127 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $123 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $120 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $118 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 18? May 20 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $126 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 12? May 11 $122 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 9? May 09 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? May 08 $125 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 7? May 07 $122 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 6? May 06 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5? May 05 $115 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $80 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $80 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $81 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL No 14¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $172 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $175 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $173 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $173 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $171 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $171 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $169 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $169 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $166 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $166 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $165 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $165 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $164 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $164 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $161 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $161 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $160 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $161 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $158 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $157 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $155 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $157 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $156 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $156 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $155 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.02 · official $23.02 (match) · 197 history records