Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c10…9bf5 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$9
politics 30% −$6
tech 8% −$1
sports 7% −$2
crypto 6% +$3
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 +0.1% -9.5% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.0% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.0% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$897) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage88d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $66 +$4 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 16 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 24 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 19 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $911 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Mar 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $168 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Mar 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? Mar 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 23 $177 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $75 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 23 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 51m
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 57m
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 22h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 22h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 22h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 23h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,166 23h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 23h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,142 23h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $13 23h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $948 23h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $31 23h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 24h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $282 24h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,232 24h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $19 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $866 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $56 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $285 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,152 2d
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,194 3d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records