Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2c10…336c crypto 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,548 (-4%) realized −$2,618 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%73W / 112L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,054
7 days−$1,024
14 days−$1,224
30 days−$1,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$347
economics 12% −$1,686
other 7% −$157
world 6% −$400
finance 3% +$162
culture 1% +$5
sports 1% −$268
politics 0% −$71
tech 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -44.9% -50.2% 24% 17% -28.7%
≤30d 49 -37.1% -43.1% 24% 18% -27.6%
≤90d 49 -37.1% -43.1% 24% 18% -27.6%
all 185 -4.6% -13.7% 39% 25% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 25% -15.4%
10% -21.9% 16% -23.5%
15% -29.5% 12% -30.9%
20% -36.4% 8% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$97 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$1,235
Realized−$2,618
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses73 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)185 / 196
History coverage320d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $189 $244 +$55 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $140 $197 +$57 (+41%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 68¢ $166 $192 +$26 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $229 $185 −$44 (-19%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 6¢ 6¢ $102 $92 −$10 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $107 $90 −$17 (-16%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 64¢ $47 $64 +$16 (+35%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 41¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-12%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? No 65¢ 60¢ $65 $60 −$5 (-8%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $392 +$315 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $159 −$151 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $176 −$107 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$49 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $117 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $61 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $55 −$38 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 27 $42 −$6 -14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 27 $58 −$4 -6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $45 −$3 -7%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 19, 6PM ET Jun 25 $205 −$24 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15? Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 10? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jun 25 $2,281 −$373 -16%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $60 +$40 +66%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $279 −$199 -72%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $120 +$116 +97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $35 −$5 -13%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 −$2 -16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $50 +$50 +100%
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 16 $114 −$114 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $392 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $29 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $40 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $89 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $65 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $13 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $32 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $20 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,234.78 · official $1,234.78 (match) · 2805 history records